NOR Flash price trends in 2H26 show high-capacity products set for 90-110% increases, TrendForce reports

TrendForce's latest memory industry research indicates that the NOR flash market is undergoing its most significant structural shift in supply and demand in nearly a decade. AI-related products are absorbing a substantial share of production capacity, leaving suppliers with limited room to increase NOR flash bit output even as demand for high-end applications keeps growing.

As a result, supply and demand are expected to remain imbalanced through the second half of 2026, keeping overall contract prices elevated, with prices for high-capacity products potentially doubling.

TrendForce notes that while Taiwanese and Chinese suppliers have increased capital spending and are expanding production, new manufacturing capacity can't immediately translate into market-ready supply. New output first has to go through process migrations, ramping up manufacturing yields, product qualification, and customer design-in, meaning the process of getting a chip approved for use in a customer's product. As a result, supply shortages in the mid- and high-capacity segments are unlikely to ease in the near term.

Among major NOR flash suppliers, market leader Winbond is expected to post the strongest bit growth in 2026, driven largely by the full ramp-up of its 45nm NOR products and benefits from migrating manufacturing to smaller 25nm and 20nm processes. Although the number of wafer starts is increasing only modestly, the amount of NOR bit output per wafer is rising significantly.

Second-ranked GigaDevice offers a broad portfolio spanning 512Kb to 2Gb capacities and is actively upgrading process technology for products of 32Mb and above in 2026. However, shifting some NOR foundry production to overseas fabs created a transition period that limited effective output in the first half of the year, with capacity expected to recover gradually in the second half.

MXIC, meanwhile, is prioritizing its additional 12-inch wafer capacity in 2026 for NAND and eMMC memory, where supply is even tighter than NOR. This has limited growth in NOR wafer starts, leaving the company's NOR bit growth well below the increase in its overall production capacity.

AI and Aerospace Communications Emerge as Major New Sources of Demand in 2026

TrendForce says NOR flash demand continues growing despite limited additional supply. Beyond traditional applications like advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), digital cockpits, and industrial control, AI and aerospace communications are emerging as the primary sources of new demand in 2026.

An AI server, for example, requires three to five times as much NOR flash as a conventional server. AI servers also incorporate large numbers of retimer chips, components that clean up and re-synchronize high-speed data signals, each of which needs its own dedicated NOR flash to load microcode, further boosting demand for high-capacity and Octal SPI NOR flash, a variant that offers faster data transfer.

Additionally, local inference devices such as edge AI systems, AI PCs, and robots are driving several-fold increases in the size of model firmware, further increasing demand for high-density NOR flash.

In low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites and aerospace electronics, core satellite chipsets require highly reliable NOR flash to support fast boot-up and firmware backup. Ground receiving antennas also incorporate NOR flash to support real-time data processing and over-the-air firmware updates. Aerospace-grade NOR flash must also withstand radiation exposure and extreme temperature swings, creating significant technical barriers to entry that strengthen the position of Taiwanese and U.S. suppliers who can meet those requirements.

TrendForce notes that NOR flash contract prices rose by a cumulative average of 100-120% in the first half of 2026. Price trends are expected to diverge across different capacity segments in the second half. Products with capacities of 256Mb and above will continue benefiting from strong demand from AI servers and automotive applications, and with leading Taiwanese suppliers able to add only limited additional bit supply, average prices for these products could rise another 90-110% in the second half of 2026.

For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price increases for consumer-grade products are therefore expected to moderate, entering a period of consolidation at elevated levels. TrendForce estimates prices in this segment will rise 10-20% in the fourth quarter of 2026.