Advanced semiconductor packaging to grow 10% to reach $78.6 B by 2028
With 3D semiconductor packaging becoming new Moore's Law extender, it is estimated to grow in 2023, even other semiconductor manufacturing market going weak in 2023. Yole notes:
Advanced packaging (AP) revenue is expected to grow at a 10% CAGR, from US$44.3 billion in 2022 to US$78.6 billion by 2028
AP revenues have grown 10% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Flip-chip BGA, flip-chip CSP and 2.5D/3D are the dominating packaging platforms in terms of revenues.
AP units are expected to show a 6% CAGR 2022-2028, with WLCSP, SiP and FCCSP leading in terms of the total number of units.
Yole said "despite the soft demand in several end-markets, package manufacturers have experienced a prolonged inventory digestion, leading to declining utilization rates in the first half of 2023. This resulted in a 19% decline in revenues during Q1-23, but a slightly stronger performance is expected in Q2-23, with more significant recovery anticipated in the second half of the year."
Yole shares: The semiconductor industry is facing a challenging year in 2023, with the AP market projected to grow only around 0.8%, reaching a total of $44B. Revenues in the AP market are expected to show slight growth for 2.5D/3D, FCBGA, and FO packaging. However, other platforms are likely to experience revenue decreases, primarily due to weak demand in the mobile and consumer markets. Looking ahead, starting from 2024 and in the coming years, the AP marketís growth will be driven by the AI hype generated by the surge in generative AI applications like ChatGPT. The adoption of such AI technology will be crucial for devices like CPUs, GPUs, FPGAs, and HBM.