SEMI Projects 69% Increase in Advanced Semiconductor Capacity by 2028 Driven by AI Demand

SEMI released its 300mm Fab Outlook report, forecasting a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in global semiconductor manufacturing capacity from the end of 2024 to 2028, reaching 11.1 million wafers per month (wpm).
The report highlights a 69% growth in advanced process capacity (7nm and below), from 850,000 wpm in 2024 to 1.4 million wpm by 2028, with a CAGR of approximately 14%. This expansion is driven by demand for generative AI applications, including AI training, inference, and integration into system software for personal assistants, virtual and augmented reality devices, and humanoid robotics.

Advanced process capacity is expected to reach 982,000 wpm in 2025, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, and surpass 1 million wpm in 2026, reaching 1.16 million wpm. Capacity for 2nm and below processes is projected to grow from under 200,000 wpm in 2025 to over 500,000 wpm by 2028.
Capital expenditure on advanced process equipment is forecasted to rise from US$26 billion in 2024 to over US$50 billion by 2028, a 94% increase with an 18% CAGR. Investment in 2nm and below wafer equipment is expected to increase from US$19 billion in 2024 to US$43 billion in 2028. The industry anticipates 33% growth in equipment spending in 2025 and 21% in 2027, with 2nm technology reac...