Can microcontroller market consolidate? An analysis on the future of this market

While the global semiconductor sales generated a revenue around $620-630 billion in 2024, an increase of close to 20% compared to the 2023, that was mainly due to HBM memory and AI processor and to some extend due to smartphone AP chips. However some of the  semiconductor markets did not see much growth in the year 2024. One such category whose growth fell was microcontroller chips.
The total market in the year 2024 for microcontrollers is estimated around US$ 30 billion. This covers both general-purpose microcontrollers and microcontrollers used in smart cards and such ID devices. In the year 2025, microcontroller market is estimated to grow at 5-6% compared to 2024.

The important factors and market differentiators impacting this market include:
Mature node commoditization 
RISC-V proliferation
Edge AI growth
Security
Application support (software and tools)
Interestingly most of the MCUs are made in matures nodes giving advantage to wide type of companies to serve to niche and unique markets.

The top five leading vendors in this market are Renesas, NXP and STMicroelectronics, Microchip and Infineon (not in any order). Though most of these vendors have double digit market share, down the list there are plenty of players mainly from China , a different trend compared to any other IC category. Well, does this list ...