Worldwide PV market to almost double in
2010 reaching 14.6GW
According to latest forecast reports from IMS Research
the worldwide PV market will almost double in 2010 reaching
14.6GW i.e. nearly three times the size of the market in
2008 with Q2'10 resulting in PV power generation of 3.7GW
thus generating $7.1 billion in revenues. The rise in the
PV market is a result of high demand in major PV markets,
most notably Germany where feed-in-tariff cuts has driven
demand to a new level. The solar module shipments are forecasted
to increase further in Q3'10 reaching 4.3 GW.
"In contrast to the first half of 2009, when declining
module prices and poor economic conditions stalled the market,
current market conditions have led to huge a huge surge
with PV module shipments in Q1'10 increasing by over 60%
compared to the same quarter of the previous year"
commented Research Analyst, Sam Wilkinson. "PV module
suppliers are undoubtedly enjoying this surge in demand
and results have improved significantly. We predict that
average gross margins will reach over 30% this quarter,"
continued Wilkinson.
PV Research Director, Ash Sharma commented, "Basing
our forecast on inverter production is incredibly important
this year as it's well documented that inverter supply is
limiting the PV market to a massive extent. Although demand
may be higher than this 14.6 GW, if customers are not able
to secure inverters then installations will not be completed".
Sharma adds, "Despite the strong underlying demand,
we did however uncover a significant amount of double-ordering
occurring as customers scramble to secure inverters. It's
possible we may see a large number of orders cancelled in
2H'10 or excess inventory in the supply chain"
Along with tracking PV demand, this forecast is also based
on a survey of inverter suppliers, which analyzed the inverter
industry's production for 2010. Last time the PV market
grew on this scale was back in 2008 when the PV market was
dominated by Spain accounting nearly 43% of the PV capacity.
In 2010 Germany is the main driver and is predicted to account
for about 47% of new capacity.
Trouble may be looming ahead Sharma warns "In 2010,
the top three markets - Germany, Italy and Czech Republic
are predicted to install a combined 9.8 GW of new PV capacity.
However, due to changes in incentive schemes and new regulations,
this total is predicted to fall considerably in 2011 and
new markets will need to pick up the shortfall".
IMS Research is predicting a slowdown in growth at the
end of the year and some softening of PV module prices in
Q1'11. However this drop is predicted to be more gradual
as compared to the drop in 2008 where the Spanish market
collapsed and PV prices went into freefall.
Despite very high demand coming from EMEA (which in 2010
will have three GW+ markets), its share of the global market
is actually predicted to fall slightly to 78% in 2010 as
emerging markets in Asia and North America take off. First
Solar (Suppliers of PV modules using Cadmium Telluride (CdTe))
remained the largest supplier of PV modules in Q1'10. However,
its share of module shipments decreased for the fifth consecutive
quarter with suppliers of crystalline technology slowly
gaining emphasis with five leading Chinese module manufacturers
(Suntech, Trina, Yingli, Canadian Solar and Solarfun) increasing
their command on the market yielding a combined share of
global shipments of 28% in the first quarter. Whilst IMS
Research predicts that total PV module shipments will grow
by 60% in 2010, shipments of Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) modules
(dominated by First Solar) are forecast to increase by just
20% due to limited capacity increases for the technology
until 2011. These results indicate that CdTe's share of
shipments will decrease from nearly 11% in 2009 to just
over 8% in 2010.
