AP-SoC shipments to rebound 9% YoY in 2024

Date: 12/04/2024
Counterpoint Research forecasts a 9% year-over-year rebound in smartphone AP-SoC shipments, driven primarily by the transition to more advanced nodes, especially 3nm chips in flagship devices. This shift, along with the expanding demand for premium and ultra-premium smartphones, is expected to benefit key players like TSMC in the long term.

Further findings by Counterpoint includes:

Migration from 5/4nm to 3nm chips in flagship smartphones, particularly those powered by Apple and Qualcomm, will stimulate growth.
Increased adoption of entry-level 5G chips in emerging markets, fueled by growing consumer awareness and expanding network coverage, will support the growth of advanced nodes.
TSMC is expected to benefit significantly from the surge in demand for advanced nodes, ensuring long-term growth prospects.
MediaTek and Qualcomm will emerge as major winners in the transition from 4G to 5G, with Qualcomm projected to dominate the 5/4nm segment through 2025.
SMIC may face challenges in transitioning to more advanced nodes due to DUV equipment bans, despite gaining relevance in 7/6nm nodes.
2nm continues to be elusive but will likely emerge in 2026 with the arrival of Apple’s iPhone 18 series.

“With all the growth coming from the advanced nodes this is positive for TSMC through the long term” says Brady Wang, Associate Director for Counterpoint Research’s Foundry and Semiconductor 360 research services. “And with the surge in AI semiconductors the short term view looks even brighter.”

“For fabless, it is a given that both MediaTek and Qualcomm are going to be the big winners in the 4G-to-5G transition,” said Parv Sharma, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint’s Semiconductor 360 research service. “It is a good opportunity for MediaTek to capitalize on its leading-edge sweet spot, but we still see Qualcomm dominating through 2025 when it will have almost 50% share of the 5/4nm segment.”

smartphone soc

Source: Counterpoint