HBM forecast by Yole: To reach US$14 billion by 2024 at CAGR of 38% through 2029
Date: 19/02/2024
The High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) semiconductor market is set for a substantial growth, with latest Yole Group forecasting revenues to reach US$14 billion by 2024 and an impressive CAGR of approximately 38% through 2029.
As demand for high-speed memory technologies surges, particularly fueled by AI computing demands, the HBM market emerges as a frontrunner, expected to outpace the overall DRAM market significantly. Yole Group's comprehensive analysis and projections shed light on the evolving landscape of DRAM technologies, emphasizing the pivotal role of advancements like hybrid bonding and monolithic 3D DRAM in shaping the future of memory solutions. With the promise of enhanced performance, efficiency, and scalability, the trajectory of HBM and 3D DRAM heralds a new era of innovation and opportunity in the semiconductor industry.
The shift towards 3D technologies, such as 4F2 cell designs and hybrid bonding, alongside advancements like monolithic 3D DRAM, promises to revolutionize DRAM scaling and unlock new opportunities, particularly in China. Amidst a memory market winter, the demand for DRAM remained subdued, except for niche segments like AI servers and automotive electronics, driven by applications like ChatGPT that demand high-speed memory technologies.
Hybrid bonding emerges as a critical enabler for advancing HBM, enhancing memory bandwidth and power efficiency while reducing stack thickness. Anticipated to debut with the HBM4 generation around 2026, hybrid bonding could accommodate up to 16 DRAM dies per stack, doubling the interface width to 2,048 bits. Concurrently, the exploration of monolithic 3D DRAM presents a promising avenue for long-term scaling, yet uncertainties persist regarding its development and optimal strategies. DRAM companies are exploring diverse approaches, from 1T-1C cells with horizontal capacitors to capacitor-less options like gain cells (2T0C) or 1T-DRAM based on the floating-body effect. The transition to 3D DRAM is anticipated to catalyze a significant industry transformation akin to the evolution witnessed with 3D NAND technology.
Simone Bertolazzi, Ph.D., Principal Analyst, Memory at Yole Group said “Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron diverted more wafer capacity to HBM to meet demand, slowing overall bit production and increasing undersupply for non-HBM products. HBM wafer production is set to double in 2024.” He further comments “The development of 4F2 DRAM aims to shrink the chip area by approximately 30% compared to existing 6F2 structures, without requiring smaller lithography nodes. Additionally, the adoption of CBA DRAM architectures, where the periphery circuit and memory array are processed on separate wafers and then stacked together using wafer-to-wafer hybrid bonding, is expected to commence with the introduction of 4F2 cells by 2027.”
