Yole forecasts LED luminaire revenue to reach $435M in 2013 and $516M by 2016

Date: 12/06/2013
Pars Mukish, Market and technology analyst, LED at Yole Développement says “We estimate that LED luminaire revenue will reach $435M in 2013 and peak at $516M by 2016, fuelled by the increased need for energy efficiency. Growth will be driven firstly by tunnel lighting, and then relayed into highway, road, residential and amenity lighting applications starting in 2014. By 2017, market size should decline because of a decreasing replacement market (due to LED-based systems’ higher lifetime) and also because of LED luminaire’s ASP”.

Other points, comments and analysis by Yole on LED luminaire market:
Designing with LED implies major changes for conventional luminaire manufacturers – mostly at the optical, electrical and physical levels. With the move to LED technology, traditional luminaire manufacturers face dramatic organizational changes, such as integrating electronic competencies, upgrading optical competencies, taking ownership of the light source (SSL), and revamping production organization. Consequently, internal revolution is required within luminaire companies in order to take full advantage of the LED boom.

“Compared to other lighting applications (residential, commercial, etc.), the outdoor lighting supply chain involves more associated/parallel industries, such as the pole and bracket industry, the control industry and the cable industry”, explains Christophe Richon, CEO of Lux Fit. As is the case for other lighting applications, these industries must also redesign their products in order to make their business sustainable: smaller-size pole and bracket equivalents due to LED miniaturization, new power supply and control capacities due to LEDs’ higher start current, etc.
At the business chain level, outdoor lighting is also quite unique in terms of involving different player types: end-users and specifiers such as municipalities, lighting designers, installers, etc. With LEDs offering longer lifetime, better energy savings and increased aesthetic potential, each player must adapt its activity to make best use of the technology.

Around the world, LED adoption in road and street lighting has benefitted from financial incentives to hasten the change. Whilst recession in many economies has led some governments to revise their subsidizing policies, others have maintained them, and other support forms are emerging. However, in many countries, public end-users are now faced with a dilemma: invest in public lighting (mainly because of increasing urbanization and the need to implement energy efficient systems) or reduce spending (less public money available, political pressure, etc.).
As a result, public end-users are turning more and more to new business models that provide energy efficient lighting at reduced initial costs, such as Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) and performance contracts (ESCOs).