IHS iSuppli has reported mobile memory revenue is projected
to reach $14.9 billion in 2012, up from $14.1 billion in
2011. The mobile memory forecast includes the flash memory
segments of NAND and NOR, the NAND sub-segment of embedded
multimedia card (eMMC), as well the mobile dynamic random
access memory (DRAM) sector.
An even bigger 9 percent increase is anticipated in 2013
for mobile memory as more smartphone and tablet products
requiring higher memory densities come into the marketplace,
with revenue climbing to $16.2 billion. By 2015, mobile
memory revenue will peak at $17.9 billion.
"The mobile space has been the engine for overall
memory growth in the last few years, and it continues to
shape and define the success of suppliers participating
in the memory market," said Michael Yang, senior principal
analyst for memory and storage at IHS. "Given the ongoing
passion of consumers for mobile devices like smartphones
and tablets, the outlook for mobile memory remains exceedingly
optimistic."
The other findings reported by IHS includes:
The largest contributor to mobile memory is NAND flash
given projected revenue this year of $10.5 billion, up 14
percent from $9.2 billion last year. Mobile NAND flash revenue
this year will be 50 percent of the entire NAND market of
$21.0 billion, demonstrating the strength of the segment.
Smartphones are the primary driver of NAND fl ash consumption,
especially in memory-hungry Android handsets, whose operating
systems require significantly more flash memory than that
of their main competitor, the iPhone iOS from Apple Inc.
Android handsets are projected to consume approximately
54 percent share of overall flash memory usage in the smartphone
space, compared to 18 percent for the iPhone.
Of the NAND fl ash total this year, the eMMC segment will
account for $3.7 billion, up from $2.8 billion in 2011.
In particular, eMMC has become a viable mobile memory solution
for high-end markets like smartphones and tablets, in which
high-density storage capacity is required along with low-power
consumption and a small footprint.
A second big contributor to mobile memory revenue is mobile
DRAM, with tablets like the Apple iPad joining mobile phones
as key segments pushing consumption of mobile DRAM. Mobile
DRAM revenue this year will reach $6.6 billion, up 12 percent
from $5.9 billion in 2011.
The future of mobile DRAM also looks bright, as it is forecast
to account for more than 32 percent of all DRAM bits shipped
in 2015-a dramatic increase from a 6.2 percent share in
2009. While 2-gigabit and 4-gigabit shipments have become
the volume leaders, 8-gigabit mobile DRAM will become the
sweet-spot density for handsets that sport the latest Android
operating system, also known as Ice Cream Sandwich.
The third component of the mobile memory market, NOR flash,
continues to decline amid weakness in several key segments.
NOR flash is the only segment of the mobile memory market
that will see revenue trend downward this year, falling
to a projected $1.5 billion compared to $1.8 billion in
2011.
As handsets continue to migrate upward in their use of
memory, NOR is increasingly in uncertain ground, unable
to meet the growing demand for high density while keeping
costs low, unlike its rival NAND. A lower-cost NOR product
known as Serial Peripheral Interface (SPI) NOR from aggressive
Taiwanese suppliers has also been enjoying more prominent
play of late, but its lower cost has pushed overall NOR
revenue down.
Given the changes sweeping the NOR market, the traditional
suppliers of NOR have seen their markets erode. For instance,
NOR-related revenue in the fourth quarter of 2011 for Micron
Technology Inc. from Idaho fell a sequential 24 percent,
while major NOR player Spansion Inc. from California has
shifted focus to the more stable embedded market also in
light of declining revenue.
Only one player has enjoyed great strides in the NOR market:
Beijing-based GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. saw its business
grow rapidly in the fourth quarter last year after quarterly
revenue growth of more than 240 percent, in line with projections
for the company to outpace other NOR suppliers in the near
term.
For the embedded memory segment that makes up part of the
total mobile and embedded memory market, optimism is returning
with PCs forecast to enjoy a resurgence, buoyed by Intel
Corp.'s strong push of its Ultrabook platform as well as
the expected launch of Windows 8 by Microsoft Corp. later
this year. And with high-volume projections being made for
media tablets this year, the fortunes of the embedded memory
market are looking up as well.
Overall, the embedded market still represents almost 5
billion NOR units in shipments projected for 2012, with
a five-year CAGR in excess of 4 percent through 2016.
Author: Srinivasa Reddy N
