LED market: Taiwan lead in supplies and
Japan in consumption
DisplaySearch has reported below finding on the LED market:
Lighting segment of LED market is predicted grow by 20%
over 2010. The total package revenue for backlight and lighting
applications was $7.2 billion in 2010 and is forecast to
reach $12.7 billion in 2014.
In 2011, DisplaySearch predicts global LED capacity will
reach 180 billion units, and by 2013 will reach 227 billion.
"While overall LED demand continues to rise, we are
seeing demand taper off in LED backlights and begin to trend
more in the direction of LED lighting," said Leo Liu,
Senior Analyst at DisplaySearch. "Due to high inventories
and low sales for LED-backlit LCD TVs in Q4'10, Q1'11and
early Q2'11, LED backlight demand dropped slightly; we expect
it to pick up again and reach a maximum level in Q3'11 due
to seasonal demand."
Currently, LED backlights are used in all small/medium
LCDs, and LED backlight penetration in mobile PCs is nearly
100%. Penetration of LED backlights in LCD monitors and
LCD TVs continues to grow, while the number of LED packages
per set is decreasing. Total LED backlight demand will be
45.9 billion in 2011. Demand for LED-backlit LCD TVs has
dominated the backlight supply since 2010, accounting for
nearly 50% of the total backlight demand. LED demand from
TVs will reach its maximum level in 2012, but then slightly
drop after 2013 due to a decrease in LEDs per unit.
Figure 1: Changes in LED Applications Over Time
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market
Forecast Report
Increasing Usage of LED Lighting
In terms of LED penetration in lighting applications, DisplaySearch
found the total average LED penetration in lighting was
1.4% in 2010 and is forecast to reach 9.3% in 2014. There
is high penetration in spot lights due to halogen replacements,
and government policies are expected to accelerate LED penetration
in street lights after 2011. Total LED lighting demand was
3.2 billion in Q2'11, and DisplaySearch predicts that demand
will quickly increase to 3.4 billion in Q3'11.
Sales of LED street lights are increasing due to government
support. China will be the biggest market for LED street
lights in 2011 due to government policies. The country's
market share in 2011 is 55%, but will slightly decline to
50% in 2014. The share of LED street lights by area will
not change very much from 2011 to 2014.
Figure 2: LED Lighting Penetration Forecast
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market
Forecast Report
LED Lighting Forecast by Region:
Japan is the biggest market for LED bulbs in 2011. The country's
market share is 63% in 2011, but is forecast to decline
to 40% in 2014. Japan has high LED adoption in lighting
due to electrical power limitations and energy-saving efforts.
The country will remain the biggest lighting market until
2014. LED bulb growth in China, North America and Europe
will be higher than other areas from 2011 to 2014.
Taiwan to Lead LED Supply After 2011:
Korea was the top LED supply country in 2010. Taiwan will
take over as the top LED supply country after 2011. The
top three suppliers in Q2' 11 based on 500x500 chip size
were S-LED, LGIT, and Epistar.China is the wild card for
LED supply, with a great deal of investment in LED production.
While market growth will be high over the next several
years, LED suppliers without cost competitiveness and correct
strategy will face big challenges. A surplus will intensify
competition and lead to dramatic price drops in 2011, causing
higher LED adoption rates in lighting.
Author: Srinivasa Reddy N
