Notebook/netbook shipment slowing from
30% Y/Y growth in 2010 to 27% in 2011
Market researcher DisplaySearch has forecasted the Mobile
PC (notebook and netbook computers) shipment momentum is
slowing, from 30% Y/Y growth in 2010, to 27% in 2011, when
the market will reach 277.7 million units. DisplaySearch
says decline in mini-note shipments and emerging regions
is slowing growth, but notebook and tablet growth in mature
markets is buoying the overall market. Shipment growth is
expected to slow in the short term as compared to previous
forecasts but pick up longer term, as emerging markets return
to contributing at the high rates they have seen over the
last several years, adds DisplaySearch.
"Two of the main drivers for mobile PC shipment growth
over the last few years are expected to sputter in 2011:
mini-notes and emerging markets," said Richard Shim,
mobile computing analyst for DisplaySearch. "Only one
of these segments is expected to bounce back. The mini-note
market is falling rapidly as brands are looking to exit
the mini-note segment and invest in the latest high-growth
segment, tablet PCs."
The highlights and forecast figures shared by DisplaySearch
include the following:
Shipments into mature markets are expected to rise in the
short to medium term with increasing demand from tablet
PC shipments and a commercial market PC refresh cycle. Shipments
into North American are expected to reach 91 million units
in 2011 and 108.6 million units in 2012, forecasts DisplaySearch.
Mini-note shipment growth is dropping, down almost 20% Y/Y,
to 25.4 million units in 2011. Mini-notes will continue
to remain a segment of the market but it will be for price-sensitive
areas, such as emerging markets and education.
Figure 1: Annual Mobile PC Shipment Forecast by Form Factor
(millions)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast
Report
As expected, tablet shipments in the first half of 2011
will experience a hitch as competitors struggle to determine
how best to market, sell and create demand for their initial
offerings, while facing tough comparisons to the incumbent,
Apple. By 2H'11, DisplaySearch expects the market needs
and segmentation to be clearer, enabling a resumption of
rapid growth. Despite the turbulence, tablet shipments are
expected to reach 52.4 million units in 2011 with shipments
into mature markets remaining strong, but weakening in emerging
regions. Consumers in emerging regions continue to search
for performance-oriented PCs and are tending to prefer notebooks
over convenience-oriented tablet PCs.
Figure 2: Worldwide Tablet PC Shipments by Quarter (millions)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast
Report
Tablets will be a vital contributor to overall mobile PC
shipment growth, but notebook PCs will remain the largest
segment of the mobile PC market. The 20% Y/Y shipment growth
rate of notebooks combined with the over 150% Y/Y shipment
growth rate of tablet PC will result in healthy double-digit
growth for mobile PCs in 2011 and throughout the forecast
period.
<Author: Srinivasa Reddy N
