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  Date: 17th Apr 2011

Notebook/netbook shipment slowing from 30% Y/Y growth in 2010 to 27% in 2011

Market researcher DisplaySearch has forecasted the Mobile PC (notebook and netbook computers) shipment momentum is slowing, from 30% Y/Y growth in 2010, to 27% in 2011, when the market will reach 277.7 million units. DisplaySearch says decline in mini-note shipments and emerging regions is slowing growth, but notebook and tablet growth in mature markets is buoying the overall market. Shipment growth is expected to slow in the short term as compared to previous forecasts but pick up longer term, as emerging markets return to contributing at the high rates they have seen over the last several years, adds DisplaySearch.

"Two of the main drivers for mobile PC shipment growth over the last few years are expected to sputter in 2011: mini-notes and emerging markets," said Richard Shim, mobile computing analyst for DisplaySearch. "Only one of these segments is expected to bounce back. The mini-note market is falling rapidly as brands are looking to exit the mini-note segment and invest in the latest high-growth segment, tablet PCs."

The highlights and forecast figures shared by DisplaySearch include the following:

Shipments into mature markets are expected to rise in the short to medium term with increasing demand from tablet PC shipments and a commercial market PC refresh cycle. Shipments into North American are expected to reach 91 million units in 2011 and 108.6 million units in 2012, forecasts DisplaySearch.


Mini-note shipment growth is dropping, down almost 20% Y/Y, to 25.4 million units in 2011. Mini-notes will continue to remain a segment of the market but it will be for price-sensitive areas, such as emerging markets and education.

ee Herald
Figure 1: Annual Mobile PC Shipment Forecast by Form Factor (millions)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report

As expected, tablet shipments in the first half of 2011 will experience a hitch as competitors struggle to determine how best to market, sell and create demand for their initial offerings, while facing tough comparisons to the incumbent, Apple. By 2H'11, DisplaySearch expects the market needs and segmentation to be clearer, enabling a resumption of rapid growth. Despite the turbulence, tablet shipments are expected to reach 52.4 million units in 2011 with shipments into mature markets remaining strong, but weakening in emerging regions. Consumers in emerging regions continue to search for performance-oriented PCs and are tending to prefer notebooks over convenience-oriented tablet PCs.

ee Herald
Figure 2: Worldwide Tablet PC Shipments by Quarter (millions)
Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report

Tablets will be a vital contributor to overall mobile PC shipment growth, but notebook PCs will remain the largest segment of the mobile PC market. The 20% Y/Y shipment growth rate of notebooks combined with the over 150% Y/Y shipment growth rate of tablet PC will result in healthy double-digit growth for mobile PCs in 2011 and throughout the forecast period.


<Author: Srinivasa Reddy N
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