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Date: 07-07-15

Semiconductor market no more cyclical, a marginal 2-3% growth in 2015

Due to the boom and bust like market opportunities in semiconductor market, the revenue growth of IC chips used to be ups and downs of double-digit growth and fall before 2010. With the many memory manufacturers understanding demand controlled supply and also stabilization of markets such as computers and consumer electronics, the semiconductor market is now getting rid of highly cyclical pattern of growth and fall. Even if there is any such cycle, it looks to be of very lesser amplitude. There are lesser chances of IOT market creating any such previously experienced high amplitude boom and bust.

To give your midyear semiconductor market forecast for the 2015: We estimate a small 2 to 3% growth in revenue compared to 2014. Much of the growth may come in the third quarter of 2015. Windows 10 acceptance and success is going to be defining factor in case of PC market regaining its growth.

U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $28.2 billion for the month of May 2015, an increase of 5.1 percent from May 2014 when sales were $26.8 billion and a sequential monthly increase of 2.1 percent compared to April 2015 total of $27.6 billion. The highlight as per SIA is double-digit growth of 11.4% in Americas.

SIA finds: China semiconductor market in the month of May -2015 grew by 9.5 percent and Asia Pacific/All Other by 8 percent compared to May 2014. Europe semiconductor market down by 7.8 percent and Japan down by 11.8 percent in the month of May 2015 compared to May 2014.
Month-to-month sequential growth in May-2015 compared to April 2015 findings by SIA: China semiconductor market grew by 4 percent, Asia Pacific/All Other semiconductor market grew by 3.3 percent, but the Americas's semiconductor market grew very less by 0.2 percent, whereas Europe semiconductor market down by 0.6 percent and no change/flat in Japan. The figures provided by SIA is compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS).

SIA had earlier endorsed the WSTS Spring 2015 global semiconductor sales forecast, which projects the industry’s worldwide sales will reach $347.2 billion in 2015, a 3.4 percent increase from the 2014 sales total. WSTS projects year-to-year increases for 2015 in Asia Pacific (7.0 percent) and the Americas (3.7 percent), with decreases projected for Europe (-3.6 percent) and Japan (-9.5 percent).

if you're looking for semiconductor market forecast for 2016 and beyond, WSTS forecasts 3.4 percent growth globally for 2016 ($358.9 billion in total sales) and 3.0 percent growth for 2017 ($369.6 billion).

Taiwan-based Market researcher Trendforce says IoT businesses and 4G LTE technologies to enable growth in 2015. More on that in our next article on product wise market forecast.

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