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Date: 11-10-14

Quite a big jump in solar installations in fourth-quarter 2014

IHS estimates the Global solar PV installations to rise to 45.4 GW in 2014, where a 32% of this total, or 14.4 GW, is expected in fourth quarter. This is up by 20% compared to 37.8 GW in 2013.

The top four regions by demand as per IHS are China, United States, Japan and United Kingdom. IHS says huge installations are going across both in China and United States, where these two countries alone will account for more than half of all global demand in the final quarter of 2014. IHS predicts that 33 percent of U.S. installations in 2014 will be completed in the fourth quarter.

There is slight decline in Germany and Italy where IHS finds an installation of 2.1 GW in Germany and 0.8 Gw in Italy in 2014, down from 3.3 GW and 1.7 GW in 2013.

There is a significant rise in interest in rooftop, but still the ground mount solar PV to dominate accounting for 8.5 GW of installations, finds IHS.

The fourth largest market UK is driven by increase in utility-scale installations in the first quarter as developers took advantage of the attractive renewable obligation certificates (ROC) scheme, which offered 1.4 ROC per megawatt-hour (MWh), according to IHS. The sudden demand is also due to UK government’s review and subsequent closure of the ROC scheme to PV projects above 5 MW in size. IHS forecasts 3.0 to 3.2 GW of new installations in UK 2014.

IHS says "Annual growth of global PV installations in 2013 and 2014 will be more than 20 percent as established markets have expanded rapidly. However, IHS is forecasting increases to slow to 16 percent with 53 GW of new capacity being installed."

The solar PV market in China is already doubled in 2013 and is estimated to grow by 30% in 2014, however it is estimated to slow down to 10% in 2015.

When it comes to Japan, IHS estimates the total installations are expected to peak in 2014 at 9.1 GW, before slightly declining in 2015 as land availability, grid connection issues and an upcoming feed-in tariff review take their toll on demand.

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