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Date: 05-10-13

Good times predicted for solar PV market

Both for the next quarter in 2013 as well as for the next year 2014, the predictions for the solar PV market is very good. After experiencing huge fall in prices and also severe losses for most of the solar PV companies in 2012, Solar industry in 2013 is bouncing back with good growth of shipment and revenue.

NPD Solarbuzz has reported that during third quarter of 2013 the end-market demand from the global solar PV industry reached a new Q3 record of 9 GW. This record demand is up 6% Q/Q and almost 20% Y/Y, as for Solarbuzz.

NPD Solarbuzz says "This mid-year surge in new installations is almost 3 GW more than the solar PV industry has ever achieved in the past."

“The record levels of mid-year demand in 2013 have been critical to the overall recovery of the solar PV sector,” added Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “Restored confidence in end-market growth is allowing leading solar PV manufacturers to pursue aggressive shipment strategies within both established and emerging territories, despite previous concerns that trade wars could dampen growth.”

NPD Solarbuzz finds during third quarter of 2013 there were continued signs of stabilized pricing, with module ASPs decreasing by less than 1% Q/Q, compared to last year’s 12% price decline between Q2’12 and Q3’12. Combined with strong industry demand this year, end-market revenues have increased for three consecutive quarters and exceeded $13 billion during Q3’13, as per NPD Solarbuzz.

NPD Solarbuzz forecasts end-market solar PV system revenues to reach $21 billion in Q4’13, with full-year 2013 revenues expected to be in the range of $65-75 billion. This compares to $68 billion in 2012 and $92 billion in 2011 when module and system prices were 20-50% higher than today.

During Q4’13, solar PV demand is forecasted by NPD Solarbuzz to grow to 10-12 GW, with half of the characteristic year-end surge in demand coming from China and the US.

NPD Solarbuzz estimates that global PV demand for 2014 will be in the range of 45-55 GW. The Asia Pacific (APAC) region is forecasted to have more than 50% of the 2014 demand, with emerging regions increasing their global share to 10%. Similar to 2H’13, 2014 is forecasted to be dominated by two countries in particular, China and Japan, with 40-45% of the annual demand, according to NPD Solarbuzz.

In another similar forecast IHS estimates global solar PV installations to exceed 40 GW generating installation revenue of more than US dollar 86 billion.

“PV installations will accelerate in 2014 driven by low system prices, the creation of new markets in emerging regions and the continued growth in major countries such as the United States, Japan and China,” said Ash Sharma, senior research director for solar at IHS. “As the industry’s recovery accelerates and market revenue returns to near record levels, solar manufacturers will leave behind the turmoil of recent years and enjoy improved business conditions.”

“While PV installations will continue to stagnate or fall in established European markets like Germany and Italy, rapid growth is forecast in emerging countries in the region, such as Turkey, Poland, Ukraine and Russia,” Sharma noted. “The growth in the developing PV nations will more than offset the poor conditions in the large, well-established solar markets.”

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