Date: 12th Aug 2010

IMS forecasts China as the world's largest Solar PV market by 2014

Market analyst IMS Research has forecasted cumulative Solar PV installations will top 120 GW by the end of 2014. Report says annual Solar PV installations will grow steadily at a CAGR of more than 20% between 2011 and 2014. In these four years, some 80 GW of new PV capacity will be added globally. Growth rates are predicted to slow over the next four years (compared to the huge 95% growth rate forecast for 2010).

Regionally China is forecasted to be the world's largest PV market, installing more than both USA and Germany (the second and third largest markets). IMS says China is going to be a dominant force in both the supply of Solar PV components and demand for Solar PV systems, with utility-scale plants leading the country's PV market development.

On the other regions the release states EMEA's share of global PV installations will fall from 79% in 2009 to 48% in 2014 as major European markets stagnate and Asian and North American market growth accelerates. Despite the introduction of several new FiTs and emerging European PV markets, EMEA's PV market is predicted to remain dominated by just three countries, which will account for more than 60% of new installations in 2014.

IMS says Asia's PV market will grow at a CAGR of 45% over the next five years, installing around 10 GW of new capacity in 2014. Strong growth is predicted for both Japan and China through current and future FiT schemes and public tenders of large-scale Photo Voltaic plants.

By 2015, there will be at least 25 countries installing more than 100 MW annually. The UK will be one of the fastest growing markets globally (in % terms) with more than 1 GW of new PV capacity added over the next five years, says IMS.

According to the report author and PV Research Director Ash Sharma, "The PV market remains highly volatile and cyclical in nature. Market maturity is still some years away and although investment in the industry presents large risks, there are also major potential rewards to be reaped as the long-term outlook is very positive with over 100 GW of new PV capacity being added in the next five years".

The release did not quote any information on India. India is emerging as another big market. India solar policy is on-track and this power starved region is doing everything to tap the solar energy faster to achieve its set goal 20 GW by 2022. The growth of solar PV might start little late in India but can take any of the top three positions in next 10 years.